Stats Analysis: World Matchplay Field

World Matchplay Trophy (PDC)

Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, evaluates the BetVictor World Matchplay field by their averages and 180s.

To be seeded in the World Matchplay is to have attained a very prestigious position in the world of darts and often the borderline between seeded players and their competitors is razor-thin.

This year, an Order of Merit sum of £230,750 was enough to guarantee a player the 16th seed, and a favourable position from which to reach at least the second round, while a player with just £750 less in ranking earnings will be watching the proceedings in Blackpool purely as a spectator.

That small difference says very little about the true competitive differences between those two players.

Thus in order to evaluate players' recent performances, we ought to look at factors other than the mere amount of money earned.

Jeffrey de Zwaan, Michael van Gerwen (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

As suggested by the past eight months' worth of darts on the floor and on stage, the all-Dutch clash between Jeffrey de Zwaan and world number one Michael van Gerwen has the greatest potential for high averages and dozens of maximums - in a 20-leg match, we would expect to see 14 180s on average from those two.

De Zwaan's year-to-date 94.51 average and van Gerwen's 101.79 represent the highest averages of 2018 for a World Matchplay qualifier and seeded player respectively.

Despite being the lowest-ranked player on the Order of Merit (number 68) in the tournament, De Zwaan's average is nonetheless higher than that of four seeded players.

The draw has arguably given Van Gerwen the toughest possible challenge amongst the seeded players, and the Dutchman's shock loss to his countryman on the first day of the UK Open will surely be fresh in his mind. 

Because the World Matchplay seeds are based on a two-years' worth of ranking money, the players who are most in form at the moment are not necessarily the same ones who have received the most favourable draws in the first round.

Michael Smith (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

Michael Smith, seeded ninth due to his lack of major-tournament cashes, is in fact the player with the fourth highest average in 2018 out of the 32 man field.

Adrian Lewis, ranked 16th after losing nearly half of his ranking money earlier this year, has the eighth highest average; and Gary Anderson, ranked fourth, has the third highest average.

Along with De Zwaan, the draw has placed the most challenging possible obstacles in front of Van Gerwen as the 2016 champion strives to return to the finals. 

Of all the 16 first-round matches, only one seeded player - Kim Huybrechts - will encounter in his first opponent a player with a higher average to date in 2018.

In this respect alone, John Henderson could be seen as the favourite to knock out the 15th-seeded Belgian.

Huybrechts, furthermore, despite having qualified for the past six consecutive stagings of the World Matchplay, has yet to win on the Winter Gardens stage.

The winner of this match faces, in comparison to Van Gerwen, a player enjoying a much more favourable draw.

Peter Wright (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

Peter Wright drew Jelle Klaasen in the first round, the only qualifier in the tournament with an average below 90 for 2018 to date, and will not face a player with a 95+ average at least until the semi-finals.

Everything being equal, a player who hits a 180 in any given leg wins 64% of the time.

A maximum against the throw, moreover, makes a player a 52% favourite to break.

This may give some hope to Steve West, the player with the 28th highest average of the field but the ninth highest rate of hitting maximums (0.31 180s per leg).

The only trouble is that his seeded first-round opponent, Daryl Gurney, hits 180s at a slightly higher rate.

And while James Wade's rate of 0.18 180s per leg is well off the pace one would expect for a player seeded 10th, indeed it is second to last, ahead of only Jermaine Wattimena - Wade repeatedly makes a mockery of this statistic by hitting dozens of 140s and completing clutch finishes, winning matches in unlikely ways.

While the number of 180s scored by the different players is of great interest to fans everywhere, it is not a reliable predictor of a player's ability to win matches.

With a potential second round meeting with Simon Whitlock - who, despite his seventh seed, has the 24th highest average in the tournament - awaiting Wade, he may have good reason to believe that his efficient, understated style of play may see him through to the quarter-finals. 

Raymond van Barneveld is favoured to win his first match, but he faces one of the strongest unseeded players in the tournament in Kyle Anderson, to whom belongs the eighth highest rate of 180s and the 15th highest average.

And with Gary Anderson looming large in the second round - third in the PDC in both categories - the potential for major upsets and thrilling contests in the World Matchplay may be more fully realised in the second round than in the first. 

Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter through @Ochepedia