Who Will Hit The Heights On Night Seven?

Gerwyn Price (PDC)

Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a look at which players are most likely to hit high checkouts on Night Seven of the Unibet Premier League in Berlin.

In the past three months, TV and stage audiences have witnessed ten 170 finishes, four courtesy of World Champion Michael van Gerwen.

Because MvG is so notorious for completing 170 finishes, he is a perennial favourite to have the highest checkout in a match.

However, the numerical value of a checkout is only related in a general way to its difficulty - based on PDC-wide data for all possible checkouts, the most difficult is 161, not 170, due to the need to switch targets twice for the former.

Luke Humphries' 161 finish from Night Four has every right to be considered the most difficult checkout, while Daryl Gurney's 140 checkout from Night Three (which denied Michael Smith the opportunity to complete a ten-dart leg) could easily be regarded the 'best' checkout of the tournament thus far.

The regular Premier League players have completed 248 checkouts of 101-170 in the 2019 season to date, with legs being won with such outshots in every 15 played.

On average, spectators of a random Premier League contest would expect to see at least one, and more likely two, during the course of the match.

Thus if a player manages to hit one ton-plus checkout, the odds that his opponent will be able to surpass it with a higher finish are three to one.

However, if that finish is of a much rarer variety - namely, one that can only be completed without hitting any single numbers (131-170) - the probability is greater than 90% that finish will hold up as the highest of the match.

The only guide we may have to whether a player is more likely to have the match's high finish is to look at which player has the highest probability of completing a big checkout.

Of the nine regular Premier League contestants, that honour belongs to Gerwyn Price, who is winning the leg more that 16% of the time in three darts when confronted with a finish of 99 or 101 and up.

Van Gerwen, the PDC-wide leader in 2018, is back in fifth place, behind James Wade, Rob Cross and Michael Smith.

MvG, however, buoyed by his four 170 finishes, completes nearly 10% of the most difficult (131-170) finishes along with Cross and Price.

Some players, such as Peter Wright, are proficient at completing the treble-single-double combination finishes, while struggling to convert when requiring multiple trebles for a finish, while others, such as Mensur Suljovic, are equally good on any three-figure finish. 

The 2019 Premier League still awaits its first 170 finish, even though it will likely not surpass the quality of other big checkouts recorded in previous weeks.

But insofar as it is the 'trump card' in the highest-finishes game, fans and punters supporting each candidate will be eager to see their man strike first.

2019 Checkout % on finishes of 99, 101+
Gerwyn Price - 16.31%
Rob Cross - 14.01%
Michael Smith - 13.92%
James Wade - 13.57%
Michael van Gerwen - 13.17%
Peter Wright - 9.73%
Raymond van Barneveld - 8.81%
Mensur Suljovic - 6.92%
Daryl Gurney - 6.19%

2019 Checkout % on finishes of 131+
Gerwyn Price - 9.60%
Michael van Gerwen - 9.55%
Rob Cross - 9.29%
Mensur Suljovic - 6.17%
Michael Smith - 4.94%
Daryl Gurney - 4.63%
James Wade - 4.20%
Raymond van Barneveld - 3.88%
Peter Wright - 1.90%

Night Seven Matches

Gerwyn Price v Rob Cross

Players with highest checkout: Price Evens - Draw 25/1 - Cross 4/5
Highest checkout in the match: Over 120.5 17/20 - Under 120.5 - 17/20

James Wade v Peter Wright
Players with highest checkout: Wade 9/10 - Draw 25/1 - Wright 9/10
Highest checkout in the match: Over 120.5 17/20 - Under 120.5 - 17/20

Michael van Gerwen v Daryl Gurney
Players with highest checkout: Van Gerwen 2/5 - Draw 25/1 - Gurney 19/10
Highest checkout in the match: Over 121.5 4/5 - Under 121.5 - 9/10

Michael Smith v Mensur Suljovic
Players with highest checkout: Smith 3/5 - Draw 25/1 - Suljovic 13/10
Highest checkout in the match: Over 120.5 17/20 - Under 120.5 - 17/20

Max Hopp v Raymond van Barneveld
Players with highest checkout: Hopp 9/10 - Draw 25/1 - Van Barneveld 9/10
Highest checkout in the match: Over 118.5 4/5 - Under 118.5 - 9/10

170 Finish on the Night - 7/2

Odds courtesy www.unibet.co.uk and correct at time of writing. Subject to fluctuation.

Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter @Ochepedia