Ranking money at risk at 2020 World Grand Prix

Michael van Gerwen

There's plenty of ranking money at stake as PDC action returns with the BoyleSports World Grand Prix, explains official PDC stats analyst Christopher Kempf.

World Grand Prix ranking money at risk

The World Grand Prix was the last TV title won by Michael van Gerwen in 2018, meaning that he will have the opportunity to make some gains on the Order of Merit in the coming two months in preparation for the defence of his £500,000 from the 2018/19 World Championship, which has the potential to strip him of his status as world number one.

For now, even the worst case scenario - a first round loss and a title win by Peter Wright - will still leave him with a £450,000 lead on the Order of Merit over world number two Wright.

But MvG's recent performances have not inspired confidence that he will win a sixth title, and it remains likely that Wright and Gerwyn Price will gain ground on him in the race to be number one.

Unless Daryl Gurney can achieve a better result than James Wade, Wade will return to the world number seven position - setting up a crucial ranking defence of his £100,000 2018 Players Championship Finals title this November.

This is highly likely to see Wade ranked ahead of Gary Anderson for the first time since 2014.  

Price could become world number two if he wins the World Grand Prix, so long as he does not defeat Wright along the way.

This would make him the fifth player (after Taylor, Anderson, Wright and Cross) to hold that position since Van Gerwen became world number one nearly seven years ago. 

Simon Whitlock - the 2017 runner-up - has failed to qualify for the World Grand Prix for the first time since joining the PDC in 2009.

While he only collected £5000 from his 2018 appearance, making the immediate ranking impact of his omission from the field mostly symbolic, he is not currently in position to qualify for wither the Grand Slam or the European Championship, increasing the possibility that he could encounter a top-10 player early on in the 2021 World Championship.

The greatest impact of failing to qualify for the 2020 Grand Prix in percentage terms is felt by James Wilson, who in 2018 took Wright to a deciding set in their quarterfinal encounter.

This year, having collected only £5000 in total Pro Tour income, he was far outside of contention to appear at Ricoh Arena. He thus will lose 16% of his Order of Merit total, putting him outside of the top 50 for the first time in four years.

Mensur Suljovic

Over the next few months Mensur Suljović will have a tough fight on his hands to retain his place in the top 16 as he defends semifinal earnings in both the Grand Prix and Grand Slam.

A first round loss would eliminate more than 6% of Suljović's earnings and lessen his advantage over a pack of six players jockeying for admittance to the top 16, including Jonny Clayton, Danny Noppert and Chris Dobey.

Adrian Lewis' opening-round clash with Dobey could be crucial in determining whether the two-time World Champion can hold onto the same world number 16 position which Dobey could claim if he reaches the semifinals.

Jamie Hughes' qualification for the Grand Prix provisionally puts Luke Humphries out of a seeded position for the World Championship, with the non-qualifying John Henderson and Darren Webster falling farther behind and anticipating very few opportunities of recouping their losses before December.

A deep run into the tournament by José de Sousa or Devon Petersen could also imperil top-32 status for Keegan Brown or Vincent van der Voort, both of whom have yet to qualify for the European Championship or Grand Slam. (A title win for Petersen, mooted by commentator Mark Webster, would put Devon Petersen nearly to 20th on the Order of Merit).

Nathan Aspinall

The biggest ranking winners of the tournament could well be Nathan Aspinall, Krzysztof Ratajski or Glen Durrant - players who have not only gone from strength to strength in their performances but also have no money to defend on their Order of Merit totals from most of the 2018 events.

A win for Ratajski in the first round against Michael van Gerwen would have little ranking impact but could be a breakthrough win in his career, while Dave Chisnall, defending his 2018 quarterfinal finish (representing 2.4% of his Order of Merit total), will have to fight his way through the difficult draw of Durrant to shore up his ranking position. 

Only an additional £4000 are the immediate stakes of a first-round win in the Grand Prix, but many qualification decisions could hinge on the volatile best-of-3-sets matches this coming Tuesday and Wednesday.

José de Sousa or Devon Petersen have showcased the talent needed to win the tournament during the pandemic, but the draw has dictated that only one of those two will have the chance. A win from Danny Noppert against Ryan Searle would put him in contention for a top-16 spot.

And an early loss from Rob Cross to Gary Anderson could put him at risk of not returning to his spot on Team England for the World Cup.

For want of a few ranking pounds, a player could face the wrong opponent at the wrong time and watch their career go into a tailspin - or with the benefit of just a few pounds, could qualify for a  tournament and become the next darts sensation.

Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia.