The Form Guide: Aspinall on the rise following Winter Gardens exploits

Nathan Aspinall (Taylor Lanning/PDC)

PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf assesses the form of PDC Tour Card Holders - based on their last 200 legs played - following Nathan Aspinall's stunning victory in the Betfred World Matchplay last weekend.

#1 Averages - Michael van Gerwen
#1 OChE - Jonny Clayton
#1 Doubles - Jonny Clayton
#1 171-180 - Michael van Gerwen
#1 99, 101+ Checkout - Jermaine Wattimena

July 2023 Form Guide

Nathan Aspinall's victory in the Betfred World Matchplay made him only the second player - alongside Phil Taylor - to have won 11 consecutive legs in a televised final.

It also allowed him to reach his best form of the year, claiming the #2 spot in the rankings, just 0.08 points in averages behind Michael van Gerwen. 

His 18-6 victory over Jonny Clayton in the final gave him one of the biggest boosts in OChE after his Blackpool exploits, pushing him up to a rating of 59.27 on the basis of his last 200 legs played.

This also indicates that a similar performance from the Stockport star would win him more legs on the ProTour than the efforts of either reigning World Champion Michael Smith, or Premier League champion Van Gerwen.

Clayton's consolation prize after his defeat in Sunday’s showpiece is a #1 ranking in finishing and in checkout efficiency, making him a favourite for future events. 

The Welshman, now within £150,000 of surpassing his countryman Gerwyn Price for the top Welsh spot on the Order of Merit, distinguished himself through a 7/11 record on the bullseye for the entire tournament.

The PDC average accuracy rate on the bull is 23%, and by completing 4/11 finishes on his signature checkout of 121 and its relatives, Clayton is the only player currently putting in performances that would win him 60% of legs against average ProTour opponents.

Three consecutive 95 averages in long-format matches sufficed to enable Luke Humphries to get to within two legs of his second televised final in Blackpool.

However, that also means that Humphries, accustomed to tearing up the ProTour with multiple titles and high-flying performances, takes the biggest hit to his stats after the conclusion of the World Matchplay. 

His averages have fallen to the 12th highest among Tour Card Holders, and the closeness of his matches against opponents averaging 93 caused his OChe to fall to 18th, below that of Martin Schindler or Daryl Gurney. 

Over 200 legs, Humphries has completed just eight ton-plus checkouts (nearly 100 players have at least nine), and two of the checkouts that weren't to be, involved missing the same 'big number' twice in his semi-final defeat to Clayton.

Elsewhere, resurgent performances from Gary Anderson and James Wade have revived their competitive prospects in the Form Guide, even in defeat. 

Both veterans turned in tournament averages in excess of that recorded by the champion, and both players saw their 200-leg averages and OChE scores rise, placing them within the top five of averages and less than a point behind both Aspinall and Van Gerwen. 

Both men are tied for the second most ton-plus checkouts (17) of any Tour Card holder, with Wade remaining a potent threat on the doubles; evidenced by his 6/6 finishing record with three darts at a double this past week. 

Meanwhile, Anderson's scoring power endures, even though overwhelmed by a superior performance from Gurney in a repeat of a similar loss six years ago.

*OChE (Ordinal Checkout Efficiency) explained:
OChE is a metric designed to evaluate the efficiency at which players convert their averages into legs won.
The statistic is the % of legs a player would expect to win on the ProTour, calculated from a weighted average of 4,5, 6 & 7 visit checkout rates.

Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia