The Form Guide: Price defies average drop in winning PC titles

Gerwyn Price

PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf assesses the form of PDC Tour Card Holders - based on their last 200 legs played - ahead of their return to Players Championship action this weekend...

#1 Averages - MICHAEL VAN GERWEN
#1 Doubles - JONNY CLAYTON
#1 171-180 - MICHAEL VAN GERWEN
#1 99, 101+ Checkout - JOSH ROCK
#1 OChE - JONNY CLAYTON

With many of the PDC's statistical leaders enjoying a summer vacation during the only ProTour weekend in August, Gerwyn Price emerged as champion in both Players Championship events while dropping from second to fourth in the ranking of PDC Tour Card holders' averages.

The 200-leg period defining the Form Guide analysis includes all of the darts thrown by Price in Hildesheim, and puts the former World Champion on an average of only 96.94.

Six of Price's opponents over the two days averaged less than 90, allowing Price to rack up big match-winning margins and boost his OChE rating to 60.10.

Moreover, Price defeated three of the five highest-averaging active players on the weekend by a combined margin of 20-3. But without Michael van Gerwen, Michael Smith or Jonny Clayton competing in those events, Price's dominance appears less impressive.

The weekend can also be counted a success for Daryl Gurney, as his quarter-final appearance brought him enough ranking income to keep him just ahead in the tight three-way race for Northern Irish #1.

Along the way, Gurney massively improved his winning efficiency, raising his OChE by nearly five points and making him a 60% favourite to win any given leg against a random ProTour opponent.

His estimated 45.3% doubles percentage over his last 200 legs makes him the #3 player on that statistic; according to any metric one wishes, Gurney's recent performances have revealed him to be a top ten player for the moment.

A rematch with Price failed to yield a ProTour title, but reaching the final of Players Championship #18 is yet another step forward for Gian van Veen.

Only seven players have thrown more 180s than he over their last 200 legs played, and all seven are TV champions.

Van Veen's increase of 3.23 points in averages is the largest of any player over the past month, landing him at the #10 spot among Tour Card holders.

Van Veen is still ranked only #78 on the Order of Merit, but his statistical achievements - two ProTour finals and possible World Youth Championship title - indicate that the best is still to come for the young Dutchman.

The young player setting great expectations for himself, Josh Rock, was the other finalist of the weekend - Rock not only dashed off the only 110+ average of the weekend in a 6-1 defeat of Ryan Joyce, but completed seven ton-plus checkouts during his Saturday campaign, leaving him ranked #1 in high checkouts completed over the past 200 legs, with 21.

Second place is currently held by Jeff Smith (20 ton-plus checkouts), whose six victories in Players Championships 16 and 17 have yielded him five times as much ranking income as he earned from his first 16 PCs of 2023.

*OChE (Ordinal Checkout Efficiency) explained:
OChE is a metric designed to evaluate the efficiency at which players convert their averages into legs won.
The statistic is the % of legs a player would expect to win on the ProTour, calculated from a weighted average of 4,5, 6 & 7 visit checkout rates.

Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia