Stats Analysis: Bunting's deciding-leg brilliance on the European Tour

Stephen Bunting (Taylor Lanning/PDC)

In his latest column, PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf assesses Stephen Bunting's remarkable record in last-leg deciders on the European Tour, following the conclusion of the year's opening event in Wieze last weekend...

26 May 2019 marked the end of an era on the European Tour.

Michael van Gerwen - who dominated the tour as no player before or since has been able to do - was defeated in the deciding leg of the 2019 Dutch Darts Masters final by Ian White, a stunning defeat on home soil for the Dutch champion.

Van Gerwen, who had won 32 of the 70 European Tour events to that point, has gone on to win only four of the 39 events held since.

However, most notably that date brought to an end one of the most impressive streaks in the history of darts - Van Gerwen's string of 28 consecutive wins in last-leg deciders on the European Tour.

Elite dart players struggle to win 70% of their legs over any extended period, even taking into account the occasional off-form opponents that they face on the ProTour.

Winning so many consecutive pressure-filled legs against strong opponents on different days - or years - and in different cities is an even tougher task.

Even a player who wins 60% of his legs would face odds of 1 in 1.6 million to equal a streak of 28 consecutive legs won, and many European Tour champions have been frustrated in attempting to do so.

Luke Humphries' eight-leg streak ended in 2023; Dave Chisnall won seven straight in 2019 before a loss to Jonny Clayton, while Peter Wright has never managed more than six.

Even Phil Taylor, who was rarely forced to play deciding legs in his career anyway, nonetheless never won two in a row on the European Tour.

How astonishing it is, then, that there is an active streak of 13 consecutive deciding-legs won on the European Tour - and that the player responsible for it has never won a ranking stage title in the PDC. 

Were it not for MvG's achievement, Stephen Bunting's streak would be a thing worthy of admiration and awe - yet 'The Bullet', despite having gone further than any other man in this respect, has not even gone halfway to equalling Van Gerwen's feat.

Nevertheless, there is no better time for Bunting to be making a run for history, given that he’s already enjoying the best year of his PDC career to date.

The reigning Masters champion regularly appears in the top ten of the Form Guide on various statistics, and is ranked #11 on the 2024 year-to-date Order of Merit, despite not having reached any ranking finals. 

In claiming his first televised PDC title at the Masters, Bunting won 37 of 55 legs in 15 darts or fewer and never trailed his opponent at any point in his last four matches.

The former Lakeside Champion was again on top form in Belgium, completing 15 of 17 checkouts of 60 or less and recording a 100.49 tournament average, his highest of any European Tour event in which he reached the quarter-final.

Averages are a poor metric of player performance on the scale of individual legs, though - Bunting's 96 average over his 13 deciding legs won would have seemed unlikely to have resulted in so many victories.

Saving his most effective visits for the most critical moments of the most critical legs has been Bunting’s winning strategy.

Since the streak began in the summer of 2022, Bunting has hit every last-dart double he has attempted - and completed every finish less than 121 - when his opponent was on a score of 100 or less.

Just this past weekend, Bunting kept his tournament hopes alive with a three-dart 68 finish, thwarting Dimitri Van den Bergh's hopes of returning to the board for three darts at double 18.

In his second round tie in Wieze, the 38-year-old then converted a bullseye 81 finish with Josh Rock waiting on 62.

In such circumstances, it matters less how many 180s he throws in such legs - timely checkouts will do more to extend the streak than filling up the treble 20.

Teenage dynamo Luke Littler - 22 years Bunting's junior - has made a perfect start to his European Tour career and in his imaginary quest to best Van Gerwen's record, having claimed the title in Wieze and inflicted sudden-death defeats upon Jose de Sousa and Rob Cross.

Yet if his experience in the Premier League is any indication, Littler will have a tough road ahead of him.

Littler has already contested seven last-leg shoot-outs in his Premier League campaign and has lost four, while World Champion Luke Humphries has yet to win one in four matches.

Bunting has already achieved something spectacular in winning 13 straight, but though it is extremely unlikely that he can get to 29, any further progress could burnish the glory of further titles and winnings for Bunting to take home to St Helens.