The Form Guide: Supreme Humphries leading the way

Luke Humphries (PDC)

PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf assesses the top ten PDC stars - based on their last 200 legs played - ahead of Thursday's Premier League action in Belfast, and this weekend's European Tour event in Munich.

#1 Averages - Luke Humphries
#1 OChE - Luke Humphries
#1 Doubles - Luke Humphries
#1 171-180 - Gary Anderson
#1 99, 101+ Checkout - Brendan Dolan

PDC Form Guide

Three weeks of uninterrupted Premier League victories have taken Luke Humphries to the top of the league table as well as the Form Guide in almost every statistic. 

In only one of his last nine victories against former World Champions and other elite players did Humphries average less than 100, and in none of these matches did any of those players even force the reigning World Champion to contest a deciding leg. 

Those victories have put him on his highest 200-leg average (102.01) since claiming the Sid Waddell Trophy in December, and the calibre of his vanquished opponents contribute to an OChE rating of 68.46, one of the highest since the Form Guide began in January 2022. 

By winning legs in 15 darts or fewer an astonishing 59% of the time, Humphries is currently giving his opponents - no matter how well they play - very little opportunity to earn any Premier League points of their own.

Three months into his professional darts career, Luke Littler has continued to prove doubters wrong by consistently matching World Champions and the sport's elite dart for dart on the Form Guide.

With the exception of Humphries, no player in the PDC has won more legs in 12 darts or fewer (out of his last 200 legs played), and were it not for Gary Anderson's 97 maxima thrown during that period, Littler's 93 would be the mark to beat. 

Taking into account his winning a European Tour event at the first attempt, Littler's average has improved by more than four points since reaching the UK Open quarter-final earlier this month.

For the moment he is the most improved player in darts over the past three weeks, and it is only his 25th-best doubles percentage holding him back from claiming a nightly win in the Premier League.

By winning one Players Championship event apiece last week, Dave Chisnall and Raymond van Barneveld have proved that they can still contend for titles, even if they do not hit the heights of Humphries, Anderson and Littler. 

Van Barneveld is an excellent example of this, as he has recorded one of the biggest differentials between his average and his OChE score seen in the Form Guide. 

Most other players averaging 93 would barely be expected to win 50% of their legs against ProTour opponents, but Barney takes 55%, giving him the 15th highest OChE in spite of his 40th highest average. 

The effect of his doubles accuracy in winning him matches above his station is clear - Barney hit 55% of doubles in winning seven matches at Players Championship 5, without averaging 100 in any of them. 

And while Chisnall, uncharacteristically, is ranked only 24th in averages on the Form Guide, his opponents in Players Championship 6 had difficulty building on any leads they held over him, as Chisnall averaged 115 for the event when trailing an opponent. 

Attention has shifted to younger players than the 43-year-old Chisnall and the 56-year old Van Barneveld, but the 'old guard' continues to show its strength, even when they don't finish top of the Form Guide.

*OChE (Ordinal Checkout Efficiency) explained:
OChE is a metric designed to evaluate the efficiency at which players convert their averages into legs won.
The statistic is the % of legs a player would expect to win on the ProTour, calculated from a weighted average of 4,5, 6 & 7 visit checkout rates.

Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia