Stats Analysis: Potential Ranking Changes After Ally Pally

Raymond van Barneveld (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a look at which players have the most ranking money to lose and gain at the 2018/2019 William Hill World Darts Championship.

Two years ago, Michael van Gerwen was enjoying what would become a historic streak of virtuosity and dominance as he steamrolled the opposition to claim five consecutive TV titles, becoming World Champion and opening a lead of £1.1m over Gary Anderson on the Order of Merit.

Today, the crowning achievement of Van Gerwen's 2016 campaign is about to disappear from the rankings and a host of new players are making substantial inroads into the upper echelons of professional darts.

Which players' ranking positions are most at risk in the 2019 World Championship, and who stands to benefit the most from a breakthrough performance at the Alexandra Palace?

Mark Webster (PDC)

Mark Webster will not play in a World Championship for the first time since 2006, and because he reached the third round in the 2017 World Championship, his inability to defend those £25,000 of earnings will cost him 25.7% of his current Order of Merit total, causing him to start 2019 at best as the 52nd ranked player on the Order of Merit.

Several other 2017 competitors' failure to qualify for the 2019 event may cost them their tour cards, as they will drop out of the top 64 and must attend Q-School in order to extend their professional careers.

Terry Jenkins, already in a state of semi-retirement, is the most well-known of these; but the pending loss of 2017 World Championship earnings will represent 31% of Andrew Gilding's current total, 25% of Jamie Caven's and 23% of Robbie Green's - and all of these players will need to bounce back in 2019 from the adversity of starting from scratch on the Order of Merit.

The expansion of the field from 72 to 96 means that most players from 2017 are returning to the Alexandra Palace, and because of the massive 34% increase in the World Championship's prize fund over the past two years, relatively few players who performed well in 2017 are defending large amounts of their income in absolute terms.

Relative to the players above or below them, however, a third round or quarter-final place in 2017 could still be a liability as other players surge further ahead with similar results.

Benito van de Pas (PDC)

While Benito van de Pas will theoretically remain in the top 32 after the tournament on the basis of minimum earnings, his high position in the rankings could easily be trumped by strong performances by Steve Lennon, Max Hopp or Robert Thornton, and the Dutchman will likely need to win at least one match to remain in qualifying position for the next World Championship.

Raymond van Barneveld is a most intriguing case. Next week he will begin his defence of the £80,000 (minus £15,000 guaranteed earnings this year) which he earned in losing to an unplayable Michael van Gerwen on New Year's Day 2017.

The Dutch legend recently announced that the 2020 World Championship will be his last, but in order to reach that tournament, a victory in his second-round match against the winner of Matthew Edgar and Darius Labanauskas may be mandatory.

If Barney loses that match and collects only the minimum of £15,000 from the tournament, he will fall at least as far down the rankings as 26th in the world.

Raymond van Barneveld (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

Without substantial Pro Tour earnings in 2019, Van Barneveld would find it difficult to qualify for the World Matchplay, the World Grand Prix or many of the other televised tournaments and would struggle to remain ranked in the top 32, casting doubt on his ability to qualify for the 2020 World Championship.

Even though this will not be Barney's last World Championship, he will need to play as if it is.

The 2019 World Championship will be the last tournament in which Rob Cross, having played his first ranking event as a professional in February 2017, will have no money to defend from the corresponding event two years prior.

He is already the world number two, and for the first time in years the possibility exists of Van Gerwen being dethroned as world number one.

For Cross or Peter Wright to overtake him, however, they will need to become the next World Champion and hope that MvG is eliminated in the early rounds.

Michael van Gerwen (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

The gap between world number one and number two remains enormous (£702,750), but it is likely to shrink dramatically, and put Van Gerwen's tenure atop the Order of Merit at risk, if he cannot reclaim the Sid Waddell trophy in the coming weeks.

Few of the top-ranked players have the good fortune to be defending £0 in ranking income as are Cross or Kyle Anderson, who was prevented from participating in 2017 when he was unable to attain a visa.

But three players who performed poorly as seeds in 2017 (John Henderson, Gerwyn Price and Stephen Bunting) will start the 2019 event seeded again, but with an automatic net gain of £5,000 due to an increase in the minimum earnings for seeded players.

Henderson and Bunting in particular have the potential to vault ahead of several players on the Order of Merit by advancing to the third or fourth rounds.

But for the World Championship debutants from the Pro Tour, the potential gains are greatest; players such as Danny Noppert, Krzysztof Ratajski and Ryan Joyce collect an automatic £7,500, much to the envy of the players near them in the Order of Merit.

But that's only for starters - the prizes of £100,000, £200,000, even £500,000 are not out of reach for anyone in the tournament.

It was only last year that a preliminary round player advanced to the semi-finals, after all, so the possibilities for enormous advances in the rankings - and in a player's career - are more apparent than ever.

Follow Christopher Kempf on Twitter @Ochepedia