The Final: We meet again - Stats analysis

William Hill World Darts Championship Final (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

Ahead of the 2019/20 William Hill World Darts Championship final between Michael van Gerwen and Peter Wright, the PDC's statistical analyst Christopher Kempf examines the history of the most frequently played duel between two current professionals. 

The soon-to-be 79-match series between this year's Alexandra Palace finalists began in March 2009 when the two were relatively unknown on the PDC circuit and Van Gerwen was just 19-years-old.

Over the last decade, the two have clashed frequently thanks to regular deep runs in tournaments - with more than half of their meetings coming in semi-finals or finals.

Their most recent clash, the Champions League final, saw them play their 1000th leg against each other.

This enduring series reliably produces top-quality games but it is a testament to the winning ability of defending World Champion van Gerwen that he has won a huge majority of them.

Wright does have memorable victories of his own to speak of - a 141 finish in a deciding leg to beat the Dutchman in the 2015 Japan Darts Masters and a 6-0 whitewash victory in a European Tour final, for instance - but they are very few in comparison to the litany of disappointment inflicted upon him by the world number one. 

Michael van Gerwen (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

"Most of the time when he plays me, he blows it up", said Van Gerwen as he prepares to face the Scotsman in the final.

As harsh as those words may be, they are generally accurate - and If the three-time World Champion makes it four Ally Pally glories in his second final meeting with Wright, it will be his 60th victory against the 2013/14 finalist.

Wright has been agonisingly close in the past to defeating his Dutch rival in a televised final, but six missed match darts in the 2017 Premier League and three more in the 2019 Champions League have thwarted his efforts.

His hitherto only triumph in a ranking televised tournament, the 2017 UK Open, came after Van Gerwen had pulled out of the Minehead event due to injury - after which Wright downplayed his accomplishment and reaffirmed his ambition to beat the world number one en route to a major success.

In this tournament, Van Gerwen has had things much his own way in reaching the final - he has recorded an event average of only 98.14 at the Alexandra Palace, where he had previously averaged 100 or higher in 19 consecutive World Championship matches.

Having not faced a truly superior effort from any of his five opponents this year, however, Van Gerwen has been able to cruise through match after match with less accurate and less clinical performances than those which we are accustomed to seeing from him.

Peter Wright (Lawrence Lustig, PDC)

Other than surviving a match dart from Philippine qualifier Noel Malicdem, he has done his utmost to deserve his place in the final.

Unfazed by the presence of Gerwyn Price or the frantic last-minute comeback of Jeffrey de Zwaan, Wright is putting up numbers that belie his relatively below-par 2019 season which saw him drop to world number seven.

The likely result of the final, as suggested by the bookmakers and there previous history, is a routine Van Gerwen victory.

But Wright has demonstrated the skill and the stamina to get to a point at which he could throw match darts for the World Championship crown with largely superior statistics in this tournament  

The question remains - if he gets those match darts, what will happen then?

Will the experience of having to save his tournament several times over aid him in such a situation? - Or will the demons prevail again, allowing Van Gerwen chances he never should have had to steal the title away from an otherwise deserving Wright?

There is simply no telling what might happen in such a situation, in spite of the 1000-plus legs of history between Wright and van Gerwen.

Whatever is swirling around in that motley mohawked head of Wright's could be the only thing preventing him from lifting the Sid Waddell trophy.

The William Hill World Darts Championship Final will be broadcast live on the Sky Sports Darts channel and through NOW TV in the UK, on PDCTV-HD for Rest of the World Subscribers and through the PDC's worldwide broadcast partners including DAZN and RTL7.

William Hill match winner odds
Michael Van Gerwen - 4/11
Peter Wright - 11/5

Odds courtesy sports.williamhill.com and are correct at time of publication.